October 15, 2025. Just under a year after the start of Donald Trump’s second term in office, we brought together a group of expert panelists to discuss the economic and geopolitical repercussions of recent US policies under the second Trump administration as part of our WU matters. WU talks. series. Speaking to an audience of over 250, Harald Oberhofer, professor of empirical economics at WU Vienna, Eric Frey, a political scientist and senior editor at the daily Der Standard, and Velina Tchakarova, founder of FACE and a visiting fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, took a closer look at how Donald Trump’s unpredictable leadership style has been affecting trade, international relations, and democratic institutions. 

“I’m not tired anymore – I’m thoroughly exhausted.” 

With these words, Prof. Harald Oberhofer opened the evening. Oberhofer is an economist specializing in international trade, and with his opening statement, he highlighted the constant strain that Trump’s policies are placing on international commerce and the international economy. Normally, as Oberhofer pointed out, geopolitical events such as Brexit or new trade agreements have a ripple effect on global trade: After two days of intense debate, attention wanes and the economy returns to business as usual. “But with Trump’s volatile decisions, things are different,” Oberhofer continued. For the past nine months, observing international trade policy has been akin to taking a ride in a washing machine. 

This unpredictability poses existential challenges for companies: “What’s the right course of action to take when the world might look completely different two days from now?” Trump’s tariffs on specific countries, goods, and industries, such as the ones imposed on steel and aluminum, for example, but also on furniture and wood, are an expression of his America First strategy. Seeing as tariffs on kitchen furniture can hardly be justified on the grounds of national security, Oberhofer said they were a clear sign that Trump is not taking Europe seriously. One of the conclusions was that there are no certainties with the 47th president of the United States. The only thing that does not surprise anybody anymore is his leadership style. 

“To me, Trump is a geopolitical arsonist” 

Velina Tchakarova analyzed the geopolitical aspects of the Trump era. “I regard Trump as a geopolitical arsonist,” she said. The Trump administration is now pursuing the goal of US supremacy more fiercely than ever before, as evidenced by its confrontation with China. As Tchakarova noted, “This has long since developed into a non-military, open trade war.” 

Trump is flexing his muscles in foreign, security, and defense policy, but he is becoming increasingly autocratic in his leadership. He insults top EU officials when they come to visit him in the Oval Office, relegating them to the couch while talking at them from behind his desk as if he was giving them a schooling, as Tchakarova pointed out. “This is all about symbolic politics: an end to diplomacy and international norms as we knew and understood them,” she said. 

Her assessment is clear: “We’ve not reached rock bottom yet. The last nine months were just a taste of what’s to come. Unfortunately, European policymakers are still in denial,” she said. Harald Oberhofer shares this opinion. He believes that any efforts at escalating trade policy are already four months too late. 

“Trump wants to be like Putin … or at least like Erdoğan” 

Eric Frey looked at Trump’s domestic policy. “Trump wants to be like Putin … or at least like Erdoğan. […] The president thinks he’s surrounded by enemies and would like to be a dictator,” he said. 

The central question of the discussion was: How serious is the threat to US democracy? 

With regard to the Republican “Project 2025,” which envisages a complete restructuring of the executive branch and the government departments and aims to attack the freedom of the press, Frey warned of authoritarian tendencies. Nevertheless, he was cautiously optimistic in his outlook: “Trump is anything but systematic in his actions, he’s resistant to advice, and he’s unpredictable.” According to Frey, these traits are precisely what could help save democracy in the US for the time being, even if the political turmoil continues. 

What do you think? 

One year into Donald Trump’s second term in office, it is clear that the world remains in upheaval, caught between economic uncertainty, geopolitical power games, and institutional tensions. 

Watch the full discussion here: 

• YouTube link 

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