EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

As universities are one of the most stable and historical institutions, driving and adapting to change can be immensely difficult. However, since the world around us is constantly changing and our project partner WU wants to stay competitive and innovative as well as be cognizant of the purpose of a European Business School in 2032, it was our aim to make WU aware of possible future trends and developments. By creating different future scenarios, we described possible future events and provided recommendations on how WU could adapt its strategy in order to be well prepared for such future scenarios.  

Goal

The goal of this project was the identification of possible scenarios that could occur within the next 10 years. Furthermore, for each scenario strategic recommendations were derived that WU can make use of in order to be well prepared for future developments and thereby yield a competitive advantage.

Methodology

The applied method in this project was Scenario Planning which consists of three main parts: the Trend Analysis, building the Scenarios and deriving Strategic Implications.

Firstly, by conducting desk research and 12 expert interviews, 126 trends were identified which might become relevant within the next five to ten years. Then, the impact and predictability of each trend were assessed in order to find the most impactful and least predictable trends. Furthermore, an influence matrix and a causal loop diagram were created to assess and visualize to what degree these variables affect each other and are interlinked. All these methods supported us in finding the most impactful, least predictable trends that were interlinked to many other trends. By that, driving forces and ultimately, our two critical uncertainties – Collective Action against Climate Change and Virtualization – could be identified.

In the next step, each critical uncertainty became one axis of a system of coordinates and thereby the Scenario Framework was built. By that, four distinct scenarios could be derived.

Lastly, strategic recommendations were defined with the help of the TOWS matrix. In this process, we identified relevant threats and opportunities for each scenario and linked them to our project partner’s weaknesses and strengths. The Gap Analysis helped us further in evaluating the ideal state of WU for each scenario and deriving concrete steps WU could take in order to reach its ideal state in each scenario. In the end, early warning signals for all scenarios were identified that might show that a certain scenario is likely to occur in the near future.

Results

The four scenarios that could be identified were named “Eco goes Mainstream”, “Digital Detox”, “Decade of Disruption” and “High-speed Society”. The critical uncertainties that determined these scenarios were Collective Action against Climate Change and Virtualization. While for instance, “Eco goes Mainstream” is characterized by increased collective action against climate change and a highly virtualized world, “Decade of Disruption” is the complete opposite with low levels of both variables. The strategic recommendations range from offering more hybrid options to increasing communication and cooperation between departments and institutes. We believe that by watching out for the identified early warning signals and applying our strategic recommendations accordingly, WU is well prepared for possible future developments.

Cooperation Partner

• Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien
  Welthandelsplatz 1
  1020 Wien
  Austria
  www.wu.ac.at

Contact Person

• Mag. Sigrid Schlor, M.Sc; Silvia Handler, M.A.
  sigrid.schlor@wu.ac.at; silvia.handler@wu.ac.at

Student Team

• Cara Eisinger

• Theo Leonard Moers

• Maximilian Schubert

• Hanna Tritthart

• Karolina Wick

• Burak Ziya

Project Manager

• Alexander Staub, M.Sc.

• Erik Kommol, M.Sc.