Poverty in Times of Crisis
Alexander Ahammer und Stefan Kranzinger
Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of a large macroeconomic shock on poverty. In particular, we use longitudinal data from the European Survey on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) comprising almost two million individuals from 29 European countries in order to quantify changes in poverty transition patterns caused by the 2007 global financial crisis. Because the crisis was largely unforeseeable, it provides an appealing natural experiment allowing us to isolate the causal effect of a substantial macroeconomic shock on poverty. Employing semiparametric mixed discrete time survival analysis, we find that conditional poverty entry hazards increased temporarily by 13.4% during the crisis, while post-crisis they are estimated to be 15.7% lower than before. Not only entry hazards have decreased, also conditional exit hazards are estimated to be 31.4% lower post-crisis compared to before. Ceteris paribus, the crisis therefore has made it more difficult to slip into poverty, yet those who were already poor face substantially lower prospects to escape. Exploring determinants of poverty transitions, we find that being retired, having a permanent job, owning one's dwelling instead of renting it, age, marital status, and household size are the most important protective factors against poverty. Finally, we show that mostly a housing cost overburden seems to be responsible for the persistence of poverty.
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Can’t Keep Up with the Joneses: How Relative Deprivation Pushes Internal Migration in Austria
Stefan Jestl, Mathias Moser und Anna K., Raggl
Abstract: We estimate the effect of regional income inequality on emigration rates of Austrian municipalities using a unique data set that is constructed based on individual level data from Austrian administrative registers. The register-based data contains information on the municipality of residence of all individuals aged 16 and over that have their main residency in Austria, as well as their income and socio-demographic characteristics. Aggregating this information to the municipality level allows us to assess the role of relative deprivation - a measure of relative income - on top of absolute income in shaping internal migration in Austria. We ind that increases in relative deprivation in a municipality lead to higher emigration from the municipality. Allowing for heterogeneous effects across income, education, and age groups reveals that the effect is stronger among those with comparably low levels of income, and among low skilled and young individuals.
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