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Evaluating impact potential in early-stage impact investing: Investment criteria and cognitive processes of investors

14/05/2025

A team led by Peter Vandor analyzed the decision-making of impact investors. Twenty individuals working in various roles

within the field of impact investing were presented with fictitious but realistic cases. They verbalized their decision-making processes, which were recorded and analyzed. How do they assess potential impact, and what role do other criteria play? Even among impact investors, financial criteria take precedence, followed by the expected impact, the impression made by the product or service, and the perceived quality of the entrepreneur team. The investors do not proceed in a strictly rational way but rather use heuristics and bounded rationality. Four such heuristics or decision-making styles emerge: The first style involves investing a lot of effort into understanding the social problem itself. The second emphasizes prior experience, with investors comparing the case to previous ones in which they have invested. The third style is dominated by weighing whether the case is a suitable solution to the problem. Only in the fourth style does a 'Theory of Change' take center stage, with investors engaging deeply with the expected impact.

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