EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The objective of this executive summary is to provide an overview of the whole project process in cooperation with E-Control, where the principles of “Scenario Planning” have been applied. Hereby we would like to expound on the primary goal, the methodology and the concrete results of this project.

Goal

The prime goal of this project was to scrutinize how energy consumption in Austria will evolve over the next 10 years by using the methodology of “Scenario Planning”. With an identified target group comprising of private households and final customers the project group’s task was to explore how their energy consumption behavior will look like in a decade’s time. Ultimately, the objective was to come up with clearly measurable, observable and highly specific strategic implications as well as early warning signals, which are intended to assist the project partner as well as Austrian grid operators to recognize whether a certain scenario becomes more likely.

Methodology

By applying the creative and imagination stimulating process of “Scenario Planning” the project team tried to tackle E-Control’s focal question (How will energy consumption by end-consumers evolve over the next 10 years?) and equip the project partner with four plausible future scenarios as well as with strategic implications and early warning signals. As a first step, the student team conducted secondary research in order to gain valuable insights into the Status Quo of the Austrian energy industry and to filter out industry relevant future trends and uncertainties by using the “PESTEL” framework. This trend analysis was further supported by conducting 10 expert interviews aiming to expound on and verify the identified trends. Based on the extensive primary and secondary research conducted, the project team accumulated a total of 82 relevant industry trends and narrowed them down to a final collection comprising of 25 highly relevant ones. Thereafter these trends have been diligently evaluated regarding the four aspects “impact”, “uncertainty”, “directionality” and “interdependency” in order for the project team to arrive at 10 tremendously impactful and uncertain trends the project partner is facing. Deeply engrained in those findings, the student team mapped out four plausible future scenarios, deliberately crafted narratives to describe these based on the “CATWOE” technique and finally developed strategic implications as well as early warning signals for the project partner to manage within these future worlds.

Results

Over the course of the past four months, the project team was primarily able to gain a profound understanding of the key driving forces the Austrian energy industry is and will be shaped by over the next decade. Following the “Scenario field analysis”, four different scenarios have been crafted using a deductive approach. Therefore, the team chose two decisive and independent driving forces to serve as the primary axis for the scenario generation. This decision was initially based on the highest values in impact and uncertainty of the identified trends. The selection of those two very trends to serve as the primary axis has further been supported and verified by primary and secondary research. Based on these pivotal decisions, the four plausible future scenarios “Full speed ahead”, “Europe first – climate second”, “Green Europe” and “Better together” have been carefully designed and stories as perceptions of the future outlined. Additionally, in order to best serve the project partners interests, strategic implications assisting E-Control as well as Austrian grid operators to succeed in each scenario, have been heedfully formulated. This was done by using “TOWS” matrices comprising of an in-depth dissection of the industries’ strengths and weaknesses as well as opportunities and threats and a deliberate gap analysis. Finally, early warning signals, abetting E-Controls’ business intelligence functions to follow the development and form an opinion on the probability of the different scenarios, have been drafted.

Cooperation Partner

• E-Control
  Rudolfsplatz 13a, 1010 Wien, Austria
  www.e-control.at

Contact Person

• Karin Emberger - karin.emberger@e-control.at

• Norbert Fürst - norbert.fuerst@e-control.at

Student Team

• David Berger

• Linda Bredimus

• Valentin Mascotti

• Ling Pan

• Mathias Tremmel

• Yvonne Wusits

Project Manager

• Erik Kommol

• Alexander Staub