EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

What will Europe’s transition to renewable energy look like? How will the energy landscape in Austria change and what role is hydrogen going to play in the near to distant future? These are some of the questions we faced over the 2024 summer semester. As a student group, we worked together with the regulatory authority of the energy industry in Austria, E-Control, and defined possible scenarios for the future of hydrogen on a macroeconomic scale. Conclusively, we provide implementation strategies for the regulatory authority to best prepare for these possible “futures”.

Goal

The overarching goal was to provide our project partner E-Control with a profound overview of how the usage of and investment in hydrogen will evolve over the next 10 years. For that, our scenario planning project was subdivided into three strategic phases: We started with a Trend and Driving Force Analysis, then continued with the Scenario Development and finally defined the possible implementation strategies for each scenario.

Methodology

Complementary to our project approach, we employed secondary and primary methods: For our desk research, we read through numerous papers and studies, and analyzed trend reports from the energy sector among others. Through that, we gained a solid understanding of the hydrogen industry and its technologies. Moreover, we started to find first patterns and trends in this industry. Regarding our primary research, we interviewed diverse experts, from different fields such as the legal sector, academics or consultants. With these experts, we discussed open questions on future trends and dove deep into hydrogen basics and developments. We also gained further insights into sector specific hydrogen trends and driving forces, which helped us define and validate our own selected driving forces and already discuss potential scenarios.

Results

After defining and analyzing the driving forces together with E-Control, we described “Green Pressure” and “Technological Innovation” as the most impactful and uncertain ones. We built four scenarios based on these two most relevant driving forces: In our first scenario, “Hydrogen Resurgence”, high innovation and green pressure drive hydrogen adoption.​ Our second scenario, “Technological Triumph” states that technological advances boost clean energy, but are coupled with low green pressure.​ In our third scenario, “Negotiated Reality”, Carbon capture storage (CCS) gets prioritized due to stagnating hydrogen technology but a rising with for fewer emissions.​ Our fourth scenario, “Doomsday” describes worsening climate change effects, due to a denial of consequences from overconsumption and reduced sustainable energy investment. For the strategy development, we defined early indicators, such as public sentiment or corporate announcements, that suggest the realization of a scenario and found relevant implementation strategies for each scenario. These include, among others, internal changes in Human Resources or public-private partnerships.

Cooperation Partner

• Energie-Control Austria für die Regulierung der Elektrizitäts- und Erdgaswirtschaft (E-Control)

• Rudolfsplatz 13a, 1010 Wien, Austria

• www.e-control.at

Contact Person

• Norbert Fürst - Norbert.Fuerst@e-control.at
  Carola Millgramm - Carola.Millgramm@e-control.at




• Markus Krug (Markus.Krug@e-control.at)

• Karin Emberger (Karin.Emberger@e-control.at)

Student Team

• Lucas Bauer Quero, Oscar Burger, Kilian Eickermann, David Ilk,
  Philip Löhr, Lennard Schwinge, Magdalena Stainer, Sarah Wandaller

Project Manager

• Dr. Sonja Sperber

• Florian Nemetz, MSc