EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In Spring 2024, our team collaborated with E-Control to examine the future role of hydrogen as an alternative energy source for individual consumers over the next ten years. Through scenario planning and in-depth expert interviews, we were able to develop key insights and strategic recommendations for E-Control, to prepare them for possible future scenarios within the hydrogen sector.

Goal

The main objective of this project is to determine the possible future scenarios in which hydrogen could play a relevant role in the energy consumption of individual customers. By identifying and analyzing these scenarios, the project will feed into E-Control's strategic planning and policy development to better consider and promote the introduction of hydrogen.

Methodology

The project is divided into three main phases:

1. Trend analysis: We conducted extensive secondary and primary research, including expert interviews and a PESTEL analysis, to understand current and emerging trends in the hydrogen sector.

2. Scenario development: By using a four-field matrix, future scenarios were created based on the identified driving forces of Neo-Ecology and Globalization, which were previously ranked by importance and uncertainty. Each scenario contains detailed descriptions and customer profiles.

3. Strategic implications: Strategic options were formulated, a gap analysis was carried out and specific early warning signals were identified to help E-Control adapt to these potential futures.

 

Results

The research identified the key trends and factors influencing the hydrogen sector. Four different scenarios were developed:

1. Energy Dominance: Features growth in blue hydrogen production and traditional energy sources, supported by policies favoring economic growth. Risks include economic reliance on global trade and environmental destruction.

2. Green Energy Revolution: Driven by global renewable energy initiatives and advances in green hydrogen technology, supported by policies promoting sustainability. Risks involve economic reliance on global markets and safety concerns of hydrogen.

3. Status Quo Dependence: Characterized by stagnation in green energy innovations and reliance on traditional energy sources. Risks include economic vulnerability and environmental degradation.

4. Local Sustainability Movement: Emphasizes local sustainability projects and advances in green hydrogen technology. Risks involve economic isolation and high adoption costs.

 

Strategic recommendations include introducing a hydrogen department, developing flexible regulatory frameworks, launching education and awareness campaigns about hydrogen benefits and safety, supporting hydrogen infrastructure development, and forming strategic partnerships with experts, energy firms, and regulatory bodies. Monitoring methods like surveys, market research, and community engagement are advised to track trends and adapt strategies. Overall, it is recommended to continue with Scenario Planning within E-Control.

Given current trends favoring sustainability and investment in green technologies, the "Green Energy Revolution" scenario appears most probable. Additionally, the scenario "Local Sustainability Movement" can be a valuable focus from the perspective of an Austrian regulatory agency, as it concentrates on the locality. However, continuous monitoring and strategic flexibility are essential to navigate and influence the future hydrogen landscape effectively.

Cooperation Partner

• E-Control

• Rudolfsplatz 13a, 1010 Wien, Austria

• www.e-control.at

Contact Person

• Norbert Fuerst - Norbert.fuerst@e-control.at

• Carola Millgramm - Carola.millgramm@e-control.at

Student Team

• Jasmin Eberhard

• Katja Hirzinger

• Viktoria Hönig

• Chiara Höpperger

• Alicia Sabathiel

• Gregor Sammer

• Nikolas Schmid

• Liselotte Schmidberger

Project Manager

• Florian Nemetz, MSc. MSSc.

• Dr. Sonja Sperber