Working Paper: Does a Simple Trading Rule Beat Random Timing in Solana Token Markets?

Technical trading rules are widely promoted in crypto markets, yet claims about their profitability are rarely tested against realistic execution costs and appropriate benchmarks. This paper by Jacob Damböck and Alfred Taudes examines whether a fixed Bollinger-band rule identifies advantageous trading times for actively traded Solana tokens, based on 542 token-quarter observations from 2024Q3 to 2026Q2. The strategy is compared with randomized trading schedules of matched exposure, accounting for network fees, slippage and volume-based capacity. While the rule shows a positive median timing effect relative to buy-and-hold, it does not outperform random timing in aggregate, and the advantage disappears once modest additional swap fees are assumed. By combining realistic execution modelling with randomization-based inference, the paper contributes to the debate on market efficiency and the evaluation of trading strategies in decentralized token markets.

Full Paper:

https://research.wu.ac.at/de/publications/does-a-simple-trading-rule-beat-random-timing-in-solana-token-mar/