2022-11-25 Lecture Series - Stefan Gerlach
The inflation rate in the euro area reached with 10.7 % a double-digit level in October 2022. Also the U.S. and the U.K. suffer from inflation rates above 8%. Such increases in consumer prices have not been witnessed for more than 40 years and have taken central bankers by surprise. They are far above the targets of the major central banks. These broad-based price increases are driven by both, supply- as well as demand-side forces. Disturbances in the global supply chains caused by the lockdowns in connection with the COVID-19 crisis as well as the weaponizing of energy supplies by Russia on the one side, and pent-up demand after the restart of the economies on the other side drive the strong price increases. Unprecedented jumps in official interest rates are the responses of the central banks.
But are these high inflation rates „fate“, the unavoidable consequence of a multitude of unpredictable shocks, or are they the result of a „failure“ of the central banks that ignored the early signs of an inflationary pick-up as „transitory“ and then reacted too late? What does this mean for the path of reduction of inflation towards the target values?
Stefan Gerlach, former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland and currently Chief Economist of EFG Bank, Switzerland, will provide his views on the (un)avoidability of the current burst in inflation and the challenges of central banks to return towards their target values for inflation.
Attendance is free for students and faculty of the WU as well as for all interested participants. No registration is required. WU recommends wearing an FFP2 mask in closed rooms - especially at events with many participants.
The lecture series is jointly organized by Aurel Schubert, former Director General Statistics, ECB and by Guido Schäfer, Department of Economics, WU Vienna.