As our latest guest in our Research Seminar Series, we were delighted to welcome Tülin Erdem from New York University. She presented her recent research on consumer attention, search, and decision-making in hypercomplex decision environments.

In her talk, Tülin examined whether consumers tend to search more for brands they already know compared to unfamiliar ones. Drawing on data from an experiment that combined survey information on prior brand ownership and familiarity with detailed eye-tracking data, she analyzed consumer search behavior at a highly granular level. The results show that consumers are generally more likely to search for and purchase brands they already own or are familiar with. To model this behavior accurately, Tülin and her co-authors developed a framework that incorporates both information acquired during the search process and prior knowledge. Their approach highlights the strong influence of existing information on consumer decisions and reveals the estimation biases that can arise when it is overlooked.

Two insights from her work were particularly striking. First, the models they developed allowed for the early prediction of consumer choices — much earlier than previously suggested. When dividing the decision process into four quarters, choices could already be predicted with considerable accuracy by the second quarter. Second, while prior brand ownership increased consumer attention toward those brands, once this effect was captured, no additional effects of past ownership remained. This finding offers a nuanced understanding of how prior experiences shape, but do not overly dominate, decision-making.

Thank you, Tülin, for visiting us and sharing your fascinating research with our community!