Maurizio Montone

wird sein Paper "

Does the U.S. President affect the stock market?

" vorstellen.

Die Veranstaltung findet in Raum D4.0.019 von 12:00-13:00 statt.

Abstract: I develop an asset pricing model with asymmetric information and short-sales constraints, in which investor beliefs are tied to political outcomes. Consistent with the model's predictions, I find that when sentiment and disagreement over the U.S. President's job are high, subsequent stock returns are low. I also find that the difference in returns between Democratic and Republican administrations, known as the "presidential puzzle'' (Santa-Clara and Valkanov, 2003), is actually driven by political disagreement. Overall, the results support the view that political opinions matter for asset prices.