How will the future of the living and housing situation look like by 2035 in Austria?
Wintersemester 2020 - Wüstenrot Gruppe
The project “Scenario Planning: Living and Housing” was conducted in collaboration with Wüstenrot and aimed at answering the question “How will the living situation for Austrians develop in the next 10 years?”.
Through primary and secondary research, numerous trends were identified and subsequently categorised using the PESTEL method.In a following step, the trends were rated according to their impact and uncertainty. This formed the basis for the following prioritization of 35 trends and their respective ranking. Methodologically, a correlation matrix, a causal loop diagram and an impact-uncertainty matrix were created, leading to the identification of the two critical uncertainties: State Interventionism and Proliferation of Remote Work, each with an extent from low to high. Based on these two critical uncertainties four scenarios were created. These were designed under the requirements of believability as well as plausibility. The scenarios, told in a newspaper article format of 2030, depict the changes on the micro- and macro environment. Based on each scenario, a TOWS matrix was created, combining the opportunities and threats the scenario encompasses with the identified current strengths and weaknesses of the project partner in order to draw up strategic implications. Recommendations for each of the most prevalent implications were produced for the project partner, followed by a gap analysis which depicted the project partner’s current state of business and the actions required to strategically align the partner with the recommendation. Additionally, warning signals in the form of concrete real-life events were identified as indicators for a movement of reality towards the scenarios.
Scenario 1 combines high state interventionism with a low proliferation of remote work. This suggests increased urbanization and regulation, resulting in a decreased volatility of the economy. In this case, the silver society is a prominent thriving factor in the social aspect, underlining the importance of offering a bundle of products tailored to older age groups. Scenario 2 on the other hand bases the narrative on a high proliferation of remote work. This implies a trend for Austrian citizen of moving away from cities into more rural areas, as the location of work is no longer correlated with the one of living. Here, adaptive and personalized solutions are strongly suggested in order to remain competitive. Concerning Scenarios 3 and 4, state interventionism is set to a low level, opposing the distinctness from Scenarios 1 and 2. In the third scenario, the added factor of a low proliferation of remote work combines increased urbanization with a deregulation of the economy to ensure competitiveness on an international level. Retaining the incumbent’s position becomes more difficult, leading to horizontal alliances and B2B business proving as an essential means to increase the flow of revenue. Lastly, the fourth scenario combines a high proliferation of remote work with low state interventionism. Urbanization decreases in unison with regulations, resulting in an emphasis of grassroots leaders. The scenario stresses the need of private businesses and individuals for a full-coverage insurance model that flexibly adapts to lifestyle changes of its customers. Concluded from the individual implications of the scenarios, a global recommendation was provided in the last step, which sought to supply Wüstenrot with a strategic option independent of the different future trajectories to decrease risks and leverage on the firms’ strengths. The recommendation suggests Wüstenrot to offer a modular product base with bundles of varying complexity, depending on the customers’ needs. This emphasises the benefits of flexible personalized offerings with a higher level of customer loyalty and the possibility to further penetrate targeted customer segments.
Wüstenrot Gruppe (Bausparkasse Wüstenrot AG | Wüstenrot Versicherungs-AG)
Alpenstraße 70, 5020 Salzburg
Felipe Souto Miebach