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Research Seminar Series in Statistics and Mathematics

Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien, Departments 4 D4.4.00812:30 - 13:45

Type Lecture / discussion
LanguageEnglish
SpeakerWolfgang Hörmann (Department of Industrial Engineering, Boğaziçi University)
Organizer Institut für Statistik und Mathematik
Contact katrin.artner@wu.ac.at

Wolfgang Hörmann (Department of Industrial Engineering, Boğaziçi University) about "Stochastic disease spread models"

The Institute for Statistics and Mathematics (Department of Finance, Accounting and Statistics) cordially invites everyone interested to attend the talks in our Research Seminar Series, where internationally renowned scholars from leading universities present and discuss their (working) papers.

The list of talks for the winter term 2018/19 is available via the following link: www.wu.ac.at

Abstract:
Stochastic SIR (susceptible - infectious - recovered) models for homogeneous and non-homogeneous populations are considered. The first part of the talk presents a new way to calculate the attack rate distribution of a Markov process model in continuous time for the assumption of homogeneous mixing. In the second part a discrete time SIR model with a general non-homogeneous mixing structure is defined. We use it to measure the effectiveness of different simple disease intervention methods like vaccination and quarantine, by quantifying its capability to decrease the basic reproduction number R0 below its critical value 1 as this makes outbreaks impossible.



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