How will environmental awareness manifest itself in the delivery industry by 2030?
Wintersemester 2019 - POST AG
The aim of this E&I project was to develop different scenarios on how environmental awareness could develop and what implications they would have on the delivery industry in Austria until 2030. On the basis of these scenarios, strategic recommendations for Österreichische Post AG were to be made. The goal of scenario planning is not to predict the future in a detailed way but to prepare for however the future develops.
As a first step, a comprehensive trend analysis was carried out. This analysis was intended to provide an overview of all the current trends that would be influential for the development of the delivery industry until2030. For the trend analysis expert interviews and secondary research were conducted in order to identify the most significant ones. In a second step, correlations between the trends were assessed and visualised in a casual-loop diagram. With this information two key drivers were picked from the identified trends, which have the biggest impact on all other trends. These turned out to be "Economic direction and social perception of capitalism" and the "Demand for environmental protection". The characteristics of these two key drivers were then graphically represented in a coordinate system.
In the next step, a scenario was outlined for each quadrant of the coordinate system (and thus for each combination of the two key drivers).Resulting from them scenario narratives were created to give a holistic picture of what the world, Europe and the core focus area Austria looks like in the different scenarios.
Outcome and implications
In the course of the project, it became clear that each of the identified scenarios held completely different challenges and opportunities for Österreichische Post AG. In the mid-term workshop the authors gathered input directly from the project partner and derived the implications for each scenario.
Early warning signals for each scenario were identified in order to be able to monitor in which direction the world is developing and are coded in terms of “weak” and “strong” signals, which is meant to emphasize the difference in importance of real life developments when it comes to anticipating future events.
Strategic recommendations were then described based on the implications. They were developed through the use of the TOWS framework and are therefore taking external and internal dimensions into account.
In conclusion, strategic recommendations were developed that are distinguished in global (can be used in all development directions) and specific (strategies that should be utilized when developments into the direction of a specific scenario have been detected) strategies.
Österreichische Post Aktiengesellschaft
Head of Product Innovation
Alexander Staub, M.Sc.