How do global megatrends influence the future mobility behavior in 2029?
Sommersemester 2019 - Austrian Airlines
The aim of this project was to create future scenarios of the mobility behaviour in 2029, deriving from global megatrends. These future scenarios were created through a tool by Paul J. H. by Schoemaker called “Scenario Planning”. Based on the scenarios, our group developed strategic implications for the business model of Austrian Airlines helping them to remain its market position as a leading European network airline.
At the beginning of the project, Austrian Airlines approached us with the request of analyzing how the mobility behavior would be influenced by megatrends within the next ten years based on the customer's point of view. In a first step, we analyzed the aviation industry with regard regarding Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. In a second step, we performed a trend and uncertainty analysis in search of relevant tendencies that could lead to changes of the mobility behavior in 2029. In a third step, we developed four different future scenarios based on how different trends and uncertainties will develop in the future: Flash Forward, We-Accelerate, The Great Reset, and The Superego. Each scenario included a narrative, a persona description, and a visualization. Moreover, we analyzed each scenario with regard to the future mobility behavior as well as resulting opportunities and threats for Austrian Airlines. In a last step, we developed business model implications for Austrian Airlines and recommendations of how to adjust to the future mobility behavior in each scenario.
In order to reach the defined goal, we focused on different milestones throughout the project. During the whole project, we were able to get in contact with the project partner who delivered the necessary information and background knowledge.
The identification of trends and uncertainties was based on primary and secondary research, which was mainly carried out through online libraries, official political or economic websites (such as the EU or the Worldbank website) as well as published journals and reports. Moreover, three comprehensive expert interviews, were conducted. Furthermore, students between 15 to 17 were asked about their opinions on future mobility trends. In total, 29 trends and uncertainties, having the potential to influence the mobility behavior until 2029, were identified and evaluated.
PESTEL analysis was used as a framework for the trend analysis. The analysis of the trends was done with the help of an impact-uncertainty matrix. The scenario development was mainly a creative process. However, it was important to understand the interconnection of the various trends in order to develop scenarios that are not just creative but also make sense. A SWOT analysis was used to analyze the different scenarios.
In order to structure the resulting implications for Austrian Airlines, we used the Business Model Canvas to create and establish an accurate business model for each of our four future scenarios.
Our developed scenarios show different options of how the world and the mobility behavior could look like in 2029. To what extent each scenario will play a role in the future (only one or a combination of all scenarios) still remains unclear and will only become visible through the proceeding in time. However, those four scenarios serve as a solid preparation for Austrian Airlines for the future mobility behavior up to the year of 2029.
Austrian Airlines AG
Office Park 2, Postfach 100
Alexandra Goldschmidt, Senior Director Crew Planning and Steering Lufthansa Group Airlines
Walter Reimann, Vice President International & Aeropolitical Affairs, Austrian Airlines