Wintersemester 2019 - POST AG
“Planning is bringing the future into the present” – Alan Lakein.
The problem with the future is that it is uncertain and differs from what we are used to. The Post AG is a leading company in the delivery sector as well as in the traditional B2C (newspaper, mail) advertising sector. A high customer centric perspective is key to their business model. This is why we got assigned with an important question: How will the customers gather their information in 2030?
Thinking of getting started
Advertising 2.0 started with doing research. The first step of our project was to systematically gather trends which are relevant for the Post advertising in the future. Our collection of 100 trends got scaled down to about 25 core trends. This was possible due to a correlation matrix presenting the correlation of our variables (trends) with values based on the highest impact and strongest uncertainty. Our next steps included conducting interviews with experts, and on the other hand, tools such as the causal loop diagram for understanding the dynamics of complex systems.
The heart of the process
Moving on from extensive research we selected our main uncertainties paving the way for the actual scenario development. By means of consumerism and political integration as our main axes we were able to develop three different scenarios: “The more the better” high in consumption and without boundaries, “Sustainable freedom” illustrating environmentally and socially conscious behavior patterns and, lastly, “Protect the people” with a restricted governmental driven economy.
In order to make our future more tangible we creatively built in a typical persona living in our scenarios. Clearly defined “A Day in a Life” of Lucy, Leyla and Tobias highlight the future development of our customers and internally serve as a thread.
After the development of the scenarios we proceeded with scenario specific SWOT analyses of the Post AG, followed by indicating early warning signals: sharp declines and major events, which we were reasonably convinced of, trigger our anticipated developments.
After four months of working on thorough analyses and a profound treatment of our topic we successfully achieved plausible strategic recommendations tailor-made to our scenarios. Based on these specific suggestions we constructed one final business model for the Post AG in 2030.
Österreichische Post AG