Hier finden Sie aktuelle Studien zum CEE-Wirtschaftsraum und zur Unternehmenstätigkeit in CEE.

wiiw Spring Seminar 2012: Russian economic policies after the election

Prof. Pekka Sutela is a specialist in Russian and Soviet economic thought, policies and developments. He worked in the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) since 1990, initially as a senior researcher and later as an Adviser to the Board and Acting Head of Department.

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wiiw-Prognose für CEE 2012-14 (März 2012): Neue Teilung(en) Europas?

Die Trennlinie in der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung verläuft nicht mehr zwischen West und Ost, sondern nach dem Verschuldungsgrad der Staaten. Einige Länder, die vor der Krise große wirtschaftliche Ungleichgewichte zu verzeichnen hatten – wie Rumänien, Bulgarien und die baltischen Staaten –, konnten ihre Exporte steigern, während andere strukturschwache Volkswirtschaften wie die Westbalkanländer und die südliche EU diesbezüglich keine Erfolge registrieren konnten. Diese zweite Ländergruppe wird auch 2012-2014 weiter zurückbleiben, während die Tschechische Republik, Polen, Slowakei und Baltikum sich mit +3% Wirtschaftswachstum besser entwickeln werden. Für die übrigen neuen EU-Mitgliedstaaten und die Westbalkanländer wird nur etwa die Hälfte dieses Wachstums prognostiziert. Die Türkei, Russland, Ukraine und Kasachstan werden Wachstumsraten von bis zu 5% erzielen.

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wiiw Research Note (Jan.2012): The Hungarian Economy: A Hostage of Populism

Once the model economy of transition, Hungary has been struggling with much higher public and private debt and a significantly worse growth performance than its peers in the region. A deteriorating exchange rate, increasing yields on government securities and soaring CDS spreads have recently forced the Hungarian government to seek financial assistance from the IMF and the European Union. This research note has the intention to discuss the current problems of the Hungarian economy from a historical perspective.

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UNCTAD – Investment Country Profiles (Feb.2012): FDI profile for Ukraine

Despite its sizable relatively large market, Ukraine's performance in attracting FDI has been below its potential. In 2010 its inward FDI stock reached $58 billion – a volume equivalent to 42 percent of the GDP, lower than other neighbouring countries. The FDI outward stock of the country also remained modest – $8 billion. During the financial and economic crisis, FDI inflows dropped to roughly $5 billion in 2009 as Ukraine was one of the countries worst hit by the crisis. In 2010, however, FDI flows rose to $6.5 billion, though short of the record level of 2008.

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Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (Universität Bremen) und DGO (Feb.2012): Deutsche Unternehmen in Russland florieren

Der Ost-Ausschuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft und die Deutsch-Russische Auslandshandelskammer haben im Dezember 2011 eine Umfrage unter ihren Mitgliedsunternehmen durchgeführt. Befragt nach den Vorteilen des russischen Marktes, haben die meisten Unternehmen die guten Wachstums- und Gewinnchancen, die Konsumnachfrage und die günstigen Kostenstrukturen in Russland hervorgehoben. Neben der als gering betrachteten Steuerlast auf dem russischen Markt wurden auch die qualifizierten Arbeitskräfte und die Sonderwirtschaftszonen als Vorteil für den Investitionsstandort Russland genannt. Die befragten Unternehmen sehen in der Automobilindustrie und im Energiebereich das stärkste Wachstum in den kommenden Jahren in Russland. Ebenfalls positiv wird die Entwicklung der Logistik- und Transportbranche sowie der Informationstechnologie und Telekommunikation gesehen.

Zu den Russland-Analysen

UniCredit CEE Quarterly 01/2012: CEE – Testing Times

With much of the developed world in the midst of multi-year adjustment process, we enter 2012 facing a lower growth environment. At least the start of 2012 will be a particularly testing period for the CEE region. The primary uncertainty at this stage stems from EMU via a number of channels such as weaker external demand for CEE exports and reduced capital inflows. The good news is that to date economic activity in the region is holding up relatively well. We have opted to leave our full year forecast of 4.4% for the CEE region unchanged.

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Vale Columbia Center – Columbia FDI Profiles (Nov.2011): Outward FDI from Slovenia and its policy context

High export orientation and experience in outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from the pre-transition period helped Slovenian enterprises to internationalize early on after their country’ s separation from the former Republic of Yugoslavia, making Slovenia one of the first outward investors among transition economies in South-East Europe. This facilitated a reorientation of international trade and investment toward developed economies. OFDI flows increased rapidly after the end of the 1990s. Following the global financial and economic crisis, OFDI flows fell significantly in 2009 and 2010. The foreign expansion of Slovenian enterprises is in line with national strategic priorities that include entrepreneurship, business internationalization and innovation.

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SKOLKOVO Institute for Emerging Market Studies (Nov. 2011): Torturer, victim or somebody else - Public crises of US-American MNCs in Russia and China
In recent years, the Chinese and Russian media have enthusiastically disclosed and condemned foreign multinational corporations (MNC). Among common accusations are marketing fraud, product quality flaws, environmental pollution and abusive labor practices. This report analyzes public crises of US-American MNCs in those two countries from 2000 to 2011. In Russia, automobile companies, beverage and tobacco companies, household product producers and petroleum refining companies are the leading accused industries, making up 70% of all incidents. While mass media along with consumers and government agencies are the top 3 accusers in China, those are government agencies, domestic companies and labor unions in Russia.

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CEEMAN – Presentations of the Conference on “Hidden Champions in CEE” (Nov. 2011)

Inspired by the bestselling book of Hermann Simon Hidden Champions of the 21st Century, the conference highlighted business stories, strategies and challenges of “hidden champions” from Central and Eastern Europe - highly innovative, differentiated and specialized small to medium size companies holding lead market positions in narrow market segments internationally. Results from research on hidden champions from CEE were presented on this conference (Nov.17-18, 2011) at WKO in Vienna and can be downloaded at the CEEMAN website.

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Deloitte – Top 500 Central Europe 2011: Major themes are growth, performance and innovation

This year’s analysis of Central Europe’s leading 500 companies is especially relevant because it is unified by the single overriding question of how to grow revenues after three years of downturn and cost-cutting. A clear majority of the Top 500 were able to grow their revenues in 2010 – in fact, as the report shows, close to 80% of them earned higher revenues in 2010 than the year before. Today the question is: how they are going to continue doing so in the years ahead? The analysis also draws from interviews with 72 senior executives from across the region who consistently highlighted the question of growth, alongside business performance and innovation.

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Roland Berger Strategy Consultants (Sept.2011): M&A activities in CEE/SEE in 2010 - Waiting for the next growth phase

This 4th Annual Snapshot Report analyzes the regional M&A activities in CEE/SEE. M&A activities in CEE have not returned to their peak in 2007  although they are rising again. Russia has been dominating the scene in the last 10 years on the target and acquirer country side. Energy and power had the highest share of deal values both on the buying and selling side. M&A activities in SEE are on a low level. Bulgaria was the most interesting target in SEE from 2000-2010. Media and consumer staples were the most important target industries in 2010, telecom and financial services over the 2000-2010 period.
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World Bank & IFC - Doing Business 2012 Report (Oct.2011): Moldova and Macedonia FYR among top-3 reformers

The report “Doing Business in a More Transparent World” assesses regulations affecting domestic firms in 183 economies and ranks the economies in 10 areas of business regulation, such as starting a business, resolving insolvency and trading across borders. This year’s report data cover regulations measured from June 2010 through May 2011. Overall in 2010/11, governments in 125 economies implemented 245 institutional and regulatory reforms as measured by Doing Business – 13% more than in the previous year. With 88% of its economies implementing at least one reform “Eastern Europe and Central Asia” is leading the ranking by regions. Moldova and Macedonia FYR are among the top-3 reformers in the 2010-11 period.

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EBRD – Regional Economic Prospects Report (Oct.2011): Emerging Europe’s growth under threat from eurozone crisis

The EBRD’s latest report underlines that economic fundamentals in the EBRD region are stronger in several respects than before the onset of the crisis. But it notes that increased stress in the eurozone could have an even more severe impact on emerging Europe this time around. The report revises down predictions for 2011 economic expansion to 4.5% compared with 4.8% seen in July. Growth in 2012 is now seen at 3.2%.

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Vale Columbia Center – Columbia FDI Profiles (June 2011): Outward FDI from Poland and its policy context

Poland's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) was limited to trade-supporting activities for many years during the transition to a market economy before it took off five or six years ago after the private sector had matured enough to start generating home grown multinational enterprises (MNEs). While some state-owned enterprises (SOEs) began to invest abroad, the government adopted a laissez-faire policy towards the emergence and expansion of private MNEs. Poland became a source and a transit country for large cross-border flows of funds among units of foreign and Polish firms, classified as FDI and thus artificially inflating the OFDI total. In 2008, the first year of the crisis, OFDI flows declined modestly, then in 2009 and 2010 they started growing again.

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wiiw Presentation (July 2011): Recovery in CE and SEE – Limp and Battered

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 per cent, less than the levels recorded prior to the crisis.

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Financial Times (May 2011): Special report on “Banking & Finance in CEE”

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Financial Times (June 2011): Special report on “Russia and the World”

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wiiw Präsentation (Juni 2011): Ausländische Direktinvestitionen in CEE: Gewinner und Verlierer

Das Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche gibt in seinem neuesten Up-date einen Einblick in die aktuelle Entwicklung der ausländischen Direktinvestitionen (FDI) nach der Wirtschaftskrise. FDI ist noch immer ein bedeutender Wachstumstreiber für die Volkswirtschaften der Region. Der wirtschaftliche Aufschwung in CEE wird derzeit von der Industrieproduktion und den Exporten getragen, die wiederum ihren Ursprung in den Werken multinationaler Unternehmen haben. Nicht alle CEE-Länder profitieren von diesem exportbasierten Wachstum. Während die Tschechische Republik, Russland, Litauen und Lettland ein hohes Wachstum in FDI von 2009 auf 2010 aufweisen, sinken die FDI-Zuflüsse bei Bulgarien, Rumänien und Südosteuropa.

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World Economic Forum (June 2011): The Russia Competitiveness Report 2011

The Russia Competitiveness Report 2011 is being released at a time of great promise for the Russian Federation. Almost two decades after transitioning from a planned to a market economy, and following a decade of buoyant growth, the country was hit hard by the financial and economic crisis of 2008 and 2009. Oil prices collapsed and Russia’s financial sector suffered greatly from limited international liquidity. The government moved rapidly to protect the economy through stimulus measures and, since then, recovery has been slowly underway.

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Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (Universität Bremen) und DGO (Juni 2011): Russlands WTO-Beitritt – Tatsachen und Legenden

Die russischen Beitrittsverhandlungen zur Welthandelsorganisation (WTO), die sich bereits seit 16 Jahren hinziehen, nähern sich ihrem Abschluss. Sowohl offizielle Einschätzungen als auch russische und internationale Experten gehen davon aus, dass Russland bis Ende dieses Jahres Mitglied der WTO werden kann. Die Bedingungen des Beitritts sind bereits im Wesentlichen vereinbart. Sie bedeuten für die russische Wirtschaft kurzfristig kaum Veränderungen und können mittelfristig die internationale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit russischer Firmen verbessern.

Zu den Russlandanalysen Nr.221

UniCredit CEE Quarterly 02/2011: CEE - Holding its own against some gusty headwinds

The region enjoys a continued recovery in economic activity as 2011 progresses. The region is on track to show GDP gains of almost 4% this year.  Just as is the case in the developed world, CEE is weathering this list of headwinds well. From the data released on 4Q GDP to date, all economies except for Latvia showed qoq gains. Romania and Croatia are the only two economies in the region where GDP growth in yoy terms in 4Q was negative. We continue to expect GDP gains this year for CEE as a whole of almost 4%, with all countries in our group posting positive gains for the first time in 4 years.

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UNCTAD (April 2011): Outward FDI from developing and transition economies has reached a record high in 2010

The latest issue of UNCTAD’s Global Investment Trends Monitor shows that developing and transition economies have become important investors with their share in global outflows increasing to 28% in 2010, up from 15% in 2007. The outward FDI flows of $ 377 billion in 2010 are a record high, both in absolute terms and as a share of the global total volume. Investors from Latin America and Asia were the major source for this strong upsurge in FDI outflows. Also FDI flows from the transition economies of South-East Europe and CIS grew by 24%, reaching an estimated all-time record of $ 61 billion. Most of the investments were carried out by Russian firms, followed by those from Kazakhstan.

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WIFO- Studie zur regionalen und gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in den CEE-Nachbarländern Österreichs zur Ermittlung des Migrationspotentials (April 2011)

Der Bericht untersucht, wie sich die wirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen in Österreich und seinen Nachbarländern im letzten Jahrzehnt änderten, um daraus Aussagen über die mögliche Entwicklung des Migrationspotentials in Österreichs Nachbarländern und auch mögliche Auswirkungen auf den Arbeitsmarkt zu diskutieren. Die Einkommensunterschiede zwischen Österreich und Tschechien, der Slowakei sowie Ungarn verringerten sich im Zeitraum 2000 bis 2008 deutlich. Der Aufholprozess wurde 2008 durch die Wirtschaftskrise unterbrochen, von der diese neuen EU-Länder stärker betroffen waren als Österreich. Dennoch waren 2009 die Unterschiede im Entwicklungsniveau zwischen diesen Ländern und Österreich (mit Ausnahme Ungarns) geringer als zum Zeitpunkt der EU-Erweiterung, und die EU-Prognose geht davon aus, dass sich der Konvergenzprozess fortsetzen wird. Die Konvergenz auf Länderebene wurde aber von weiter steigenden regionalen Unterschieden innerhalb der Länder begleitet.

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Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (Universität Bremen) und DGO (März 2011): Russland und der Wandel der internationalen Erdgasmärkte.

Der internationale Erdgasmarkt verändert sich in einem Ausmaß, das die meisten Beobachter bis vor weni­gen Jahren nicht haben kommen sehen. Die USA haben neue Technologien entwickelt, mit denen die Pro­duktion unkonventionellen Erdgases ausgeweitet wurde, während gleichzeitig Katar in großem Umfang den Export von Flüssiggas (LNG) aufnahm. Beides hat zu einer Reduzierung der Nachfrage nach russischem Gas geführt.

Zu den Russland-Analysen

Vale Columbia Center (Feb. 2011): MNEs from Emerging Markets – New Players in the World FDI Market

This report contains basic statistics of the activities of the leading outward investors from 11 emerging markets including the major investors from Brazil, China, Russia, Hungary and Slovenia.

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EBRD – Quarterly Economic Report (Jan. 2011): Good growth prospects in emerging Europe, overshadowed by downside risks

Growth in 2011 in the transition economies of CEE and CIS is likely to remain reasonably strong, showing average expansion of a little over 4 percent despite continued regional divergences. Estonia (+3.6%), Poland (+3.9%) and the Slovak Republic (+3.7%) are expected to show strong growth in 2011, based on the prospect of only slightly slower growth in Germany this year, while economic expansion in Hungary (+2%) and Slovenia (+1.7%) remains weak. The recovery in south eastern Europe (+1.9%) continues to lag behind other transition economies with the exception of Turkey (+5%). In eastern Europe and the Caucasus, the Ukrainian economy (+4%) has continued to recover from the 15 percent contraction seen in 2009. In Russia, growth momentum is expected to pick up again with a growth rate of 4.6%. Downside risks may result from a tightened monetary policy in the advanced countries, turmoil surrounding Eurozone sovereign and related bank debt, and a drying up of FDI inflows due to worsened foreign investor sentiment.

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UNCTAD Global Investment Trends Monitor (Jan. 2011): While global FDI flows remain stagnant in 2010, FDI to South-East Europe continued decline

Global inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) rose only marginally by 1%, from $1,114 billion in 2009 to some $1,122 billion in 2010. The good news is that developing and transition economies, for the first time, attracted more than half of global FDI. A strong rebound in FDI flows to developing Asia and Latin America offset a further decline in inflows to developed countries. The transition economies of South-East Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) registered a marginal increase in FDI inflows, of roughly 1%, in 2010 to $71 billion, after falling more than 40% in the previous year. FDI flows to South-East Europe continued their decline with a further negative 31% due to sluggish investments from European Union countries.  In contrast, the CIS economies saw flows increase by 5% on the back of stronger commodity prices, a faster
economic recovery and improving stock markets. 
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UniCredit CEE Quarterly 01/2011: CEE - An opportunity to turn divergence to convergence

UniCredit research expects GDP growth in the region in 2011 of 3.8%, up from 3.6% last year, with every country in our group to show gains for the first time in four years. Budget deficits continue to consolidate but on the whole remain wider than in other emerging market regions and pre-crisis ratios.

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Financial Times – Special Report on CEE (Dec. 1, 2010): Central and Eastern Europe - the region’s factory

Although diverse, CEE has established itself as a manufacturing hot spot, particularly in the automobile and electronics industries.

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wiiw Presentation (Nov.2010): Die Wege aus der Krise sind vielfältig aber immer mühsam….

Diese Präsentation des Wiener Instituts für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche bietet eine aktuelle Analyse und Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung für die Länder Mittel-, Ost- und Südosteuropas. Die aktuellen Daten zeigen, dass die Wachstumsdelle vorbei ist, die wirtschaftliche Erholung aber langsamer als erwartet ausfällt. Insbesondere die Länder mit einem wettbewerbsfähigen Exportsektor wie Bulgarien, Ungarn und die Slowakei profitieren vom Aufschwung im Ausland. Die Finanzierung wird weiterhin ein Engpass für Haushalte und Unternehmen sein. Die EU-Transfers in die neuen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten der Region werden zunehmend eine wichtige Finanzierungsquelle.

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Roland Berger Strategy Consultants (Dec. 2010): CEE in 2020 – Trends and Perspectives for the Next Decade

In this new scenario analysis based on interviews with 320 managers from the CEE region the Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, a leading business consultancy in this region, highlight the strengths and weaknesses and growth opportunities and risks of the economies of CEE. CEE will remain a growth region, however, with lower economic growth rates than before 2009. A reorientation in the industry focus is necessary as the leading industries such as automotive, chemical industry and exploration of natural resources will become less important, while energy and IT will be booming in the next 10 years. Moreover, they spot a divergence in the patterns of the economic development between the Central and South-East European countries. The Central European countries will develop into more innovation-driven economies, whereas the South-Eastern European countries will have to compete as production sites against the BRIC countries. As a result of this process, heterogeneity in the economic model and growth perspectives will increase within the CEE region. Its geographic location as a bridge between Western Europe and Russia on the one hand as well as Turkey and Asia on the other hand will remain a competitive advantage. Human capital and its education system are other strengths although the brain drain to Western Europe and the U.S.A. and the decline in population present risks to the economies. Excessive bureaucracy, weak institutions and poor infrastructure are major weaknesses that have to be tackled by the countries.

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COFACE CEE Top 500 (Oct. 2010): The Flagships in CEE could not sail against the wind in 2009

The CEE Top 500 mirrors economic development in the countries of CEE, where the effects of the economic crisis differed in 2009. 2008 was a year of growth for the top players in CEE, but 2009 brought a 16.6% decline in revenues for the 500 largest companies in the region. Profits fell by 27%, or by nearly EUR 7 billion. The economic crisis hit the automobile industry particularly hard with a drop of almost 39% in revenues and the metal industry with a minus of 40%. In contrast, transportation recorded sound growth – which was reflected in 11 new entries in the CEE Top 500 ranking.

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IMF – Regional Economic Outlook for Europe (Oct. 2010): Emerging Europe – Toward Self-Sustained Growth

For the first time, the REO devotes a separate chapter to the outlook for emerging Europe, where, after a deep recession, an export-led recovery is under way. GDP in the region is likely to grow by 3.9% in 2010 and3.8% in 2011. However, the rebound is uneven across the region, and policymakers face the difficult challenge of dealing with the legacies of the crisis, while not hurting the recovery. Beyond the short term, the REO argues that the region will need to find new growth engines, as the capital inflows-driven and credit-fueled domestic demand boom needs to give way to more balanced growth. Indeed, the REO emphasizes that active fiscal policy and coordinated prudential measures are key to avoiding a repeat of the boom-bust cycle the region has just endured. 

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CEEMAN – Presentations of Annual Conference (Oct. 2010): New Global Performance Challenges and Implications for Management Development

CEEMAN is an international management development association with the aim of accelerating the growth in quality of management development in Central and Eastern Europe. Annual Conferences are organized around topics of particular relevance to management and leadership development in dynamically changing environments The theme of the 18th Annual Conference was New Global Performance Challenges and Implications for Management Development. Selected presentations can be downloaded on the website.

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Vale Columbia Center – Columbia FDI Profiles (July 2010): Inward FDI in Poland and its policy context

By 2009, Poland had attracted the highest inward foreign direct investment stock (US$ 182 billion) among the new members of the European Union (EU) from CEE. Its FDI inflows increased considerably after the country’s accession to the EU. They fell during the crisis, but rather modestly, remaining at higher levels than in other countries of the region. Services accounted for 68% of Poland’s inward FDI stock with trading and financial services as the largest industries. Inward FDI in the primary sector is minimal, in manufacturing the largest industries for FDI are food, metal products and motor vehicles.  This FDI pattern is reflected in the list of the parents of the largest foreign affiliates: Metro Group, Telecom France, Fiat, VW Jeronimo Martins, BP, Tesco, T-Mobile, Carrefour and UniCredit. The four largest home countries are the Netherlands, Germany, France and the U.S.

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World Economic Forum – Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011: Mixed picture for CEE economies

Estonia (ranked 33rd) and the Czech Republic (#36th) remain the best performers within CEE. Their competitive strengths are based on excellent education and highly efficient and well-developed markets for goods, labor, and financial services, as well as a strong commitment to advancing technological readiness. Poland improves by seven positions to 39th thanks to a relative stronger resistance to the economic crisis. Notable strengths include its large market size and high educational standards. Its transport infrastructure needs substantial upgrading. Russia maintains its 63rd position. Inefficient goods markets and anti-monopoly policies as well as restrictions on trade and foreign ownership stifle competition. These barriers reduce the country’s ability to take advantage of its high innovation potential and its solid performance in terms of higher education and training. Ukraine drops by seven positions to 89th reflecting the daunting challenges faced during the economic crisis. However, a well-educated population, flexible and efficient labor markets, and a large market size form a good basis for the country’s future growth performance.

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Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (August 2010): „Unanständiger Reichtum – Die Tycoons und die serbische Politik“

Das Problem, das sich in Serbien am Beispiel der Tycoons stellt, tritt in allen Transformationsgesellschaften auf: Es ist das Problem der Legitimität des Reichtums. Die Tycoons sind keine Agenten der Re-Industrialisierung des Landes, sie monopolisieren ausgewählte Wirtschaftssektoren wie den Einzelhandel, Immobiliensektor und z.T. den Finanzsektor und halten damit die Preise hoch. Präsident Boris Tadic fordert nun die „tajkuni“ auf, soziale Verantwortung zu übernehmen.
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OeNB - Präsentation zu den Ergebnissen der Direktinvestitionsbefragung 2008: Massive Wertberichtigungen stoppen das Wachstum der österreichischen Direktinvestitionen

Wie die jüngste Erhebung der OeNB zum Stand der Direktinvestitionen zeigt, waren heimische Investoren zum Jahreswechsel 2008/09 an mehr als 4.000 Unternehmen (im Vergleich zum Vorjahr +13,8%) mit 675.000 Beschäftigten (+17,8%) im Ausland beteiligt. Trotz Nettoinvestitionen von mehr als 20 Mrd. EUR im Jahr 2008 ist der Wert der Auslandsbeteiligungen jedoch nur um 5,7 Mrd. auf 106,8 Mrd. EUR angestiegen. Kursverluste und Wertberichtigungen haben das Wachstum deutlich eingebremst.

Zum Handout der Direktinvestitionsstatistik

Präsentation zum World Investment Report 2010

wiiw Presentation (July 2010): Forecast for Central, East and Southeast Europe 2010-12: Will exports prevail over austerity?

The Central, East and Southeast European economies will experience on average a minor rebound of economic growth to 1% in 2010 which will speed up to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. GDP growth will be higher in the CIS countries and in Turkey, about average in the Central European NMS and lower in the SEE countries and the Baltics. Growth is currently driven mostly by exports which should outweigh the dampening effects of the austerity measures. Whether the countries will actually benefit from the global trade recovery depends on their exchange rate regime and the strength of their industrial sector. Investment and household consumption will recover in the subsequent years. These are the main results of the new medium-term forecast for the region published by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw).

Press release in English

Presentation in German

Deutsche Bank Research (Juli 2010): Mittelstand in Polen: Klein(er), aber dominant

Polens Unternehmertum entwickelt sich seit dem Übergang von der Plan- zur Marktwirtschaft mit großer Dynamik. Kleine und mittlere Unternehmen (KMU) spielen eine Schlüsselrolle bei der Umstrukturierung der polnischen Wirtschaft. Dabei gelten KMUs als Motor für die wirtschaftliche und beschäftigungspolitische Entwicklung des Landes. Die Anzahl der aktiven privaten Betriebe wird auf 1,8 Mio. geschätzt, KMUs machen 99,9% aller registrierten Betriebe aus. KMUs finden sich in allen Wirtschaftssektoren, der Schwerpunkt liegt allerdings im Dienstleistungssektor – was auch Grund für die eher geringe Exportorientierung der polnischen KMU ist.

Zum Bericht

Deloitte - 2010 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index (GMCI): Poland, Czech Republic and Russia are the leading manufacturing locations in CEE

Poland (ranked 10th) remains an attractive location for a range of manufacturing, including automotive and electronics, due to its cost competitiveness with Western Europe. It also helps that it has a large qualified talent pool, a sizable domestic market, and is within close proximity to customers across Europe. Notably, the most significant move on the entire GMCI belongs to Russia, which jumps from rank 20 to 14 in the 5 year forecast. This may reflect Russia’s current initiative to create an innovative economy supported by an environment where talent and business acumen can be brought together. Government emphasis on the education and development of the workforce will play a critical role in this effort.

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Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (Universität Bremen) und DGO (Juli 2010): Die Beziehungen Russlands zur Ukraine und der Konflikt mit Belarus

Seit Viktor Janukowitsch im Februar 2010 zum ukrainischen Präsidenten gewählt wurde, haben sich die russisch-ukrainischen Beziehungen stark intensiviert. Russlands Verhalten gegenüber der Ukraine basiert auf einem hegemonialen Verständnis, laut dem Russland anderen Ländern seine Bedingungen auf­erlegt. Von daher sind die russischen Initiativen bezüglich der Ukraine nicht gleichzusetzen mit kooperati­ven Zügen in der neueren russischen Politik gegenüber anderen europäischen Staaten.

Zu den Russland-Analysen

FIW Policy Brief No.4 (May 2010): Which Growth Model for CEE after the Crisis?

In this Policy Brief Michael Landesmann, scientific director of the wiiw, discusses the growth prospects of CEE following the current economic crisis. He argues that the 'integration model of growth' of the CEE region was characterised by a very high degree of external liberalisation. In one group of economies - mostly the Central European economies - the model turned out to be successful. This was quite different in the other group (mostly the Baltic states and the countries in Southeastern Europe) where unsustainable imbalances developed in part traced back to historical weaknesses of the tradable sectors and in part to choices of exchange rate regimes, to the importance of remittances and to missing instruments to deal with cross-border financial market integration.

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IMF Working Paper (May 2010): The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States: Bad Luck or Bad Policies?

In the past decade, most of the EU New Member States experienced a severe credit-boom bust cycle. This paper argues that the credit boom-bust cycle was to a large extent the result of factors external to the region (“bad luck”). Rapid credit growth followed from a high liquidity in global markets and the particular attractiveness of “new Europe” for capital flows, while the end of the credit cycle was brought about by a global crisis. However, the fact that some countries managed to avoid most of the excesses, including asset price bubbles and foreign exchange lending, suggests that policies and policy failures (“bad policies”)—in particular overly expansionary macroeconomic settings and excessively optimistic views on prudential risks—also have played a critical role.

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Thomson Reuters & OeKB Geschäftsklima-Index-Mittelosteuropa (Mai 2010): Aufhellung des Geschäftsklimas in CEE setzt sich fort.

Aus der Sicht der befragten 400 Direktinvestoren hat sich das Geschäftsklima in der Gesamtregion im April deutlich gegenüber Jänner verbessert. 41% der Befragten erwarten für die kommenden 12 Monate einen konjunkturellen Aufschwung, nur 10% gehen von einer Verschlechterung aus. Während die Konjunkturaussichten dabei für Russland am besten eingeschätzt werden, steckt Kroatien noch mitten in der Wirtschaftskrise. Auch in der schwer krisengeschüttelten Ukraine bleibt die Situation trist: Mehr als die Hälfte der Niederlassungen kämpft mit der schlechten Wirtschaftslage, insbesondere das Bauwesen und der Finanzsektor sind davon betroffen.

Mehr dazu

COFACE Country Risk Conference Mai 2010

Die Beiträge der Konferenz des Kreditversicherers enthalten einen Überblick zu dem Länderratings in CEE sowie einen Vortrag zu „Gesundes Polen, verletztes Baltikum“.

Zu den Präsentationen

CEE – Wrongly labelled

The economic downturn highlights the huge differences between the countries of Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe – it makes it harder to put them all under the label „CEE“. Two articles deal with this question of labelling the region:

Transitions Online (April 22, 2010): The region no one could name: http://www.tol.org/client/article/21382-the-region-no-one-could-name.html

The Economist (January 7, 2010): „Eastern Europe“: Wrongly labelled: http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15213108

Vale Columbia Center – Columbia FDI Profiles (April 2010): Ukraine’s inward FDI and its policy context

With a population of more than 46 million people, Ukraine is a sizeable potential market for foreign direct investment. Together with a favorable geographic location and low costs of labour and other inputs, Ukraine offers attractive opportunities for foreign investors. Overcoming the crisis, improving the investment framework, accelerating economic reforms and association with the EU would help exploiting its considerable FDI potential.

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EBRD Study (February 2010): South-eastern Europe: lessons from the global economic crisis

This paper shows how the crisis has evolved in south-eastern Europe and why this region was affected by developments that originated elsewhere. It argues that the impact has been better than many feared and that this resilience can be attributed in large part to the mature and sensible reaction of the region itself.

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UniCredit Group Research (2010): SEE exposure to Greece: Much ado about nothing or a serious threat?

The Greek crisis affects the economies in SEE selectively. Bulgaria is the most exposed as Greece is one of the top-3 export destinations (almost 10% of exports) and Greek FDI in the country is significant. Greek FDI in Serbia is notable as well. But the spill-over effects should not be considered a major source of concern. In contrast, Greek banks provide a more relevant transmission channel for SEE, where Greek banks have a significant role: there are 4 Greek controlled banks among the top-10 in Bulgaria, 3 in Serbia, 2 in Romania and one in Turkey.

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wiiw Prognose für CEE (März 2010): Die Krise ist in CEE vorbei, aber die Ostfantasie hat einen Dämpfer bekommen.

Das Schlimmste ist in CEE überstanden, die Rezession soll bis spätestens 2011 in der Region vorüber sein. Als Wachstumstreiber gelten weiterhin das „Export-Modell“ und die EU-Förderungen – speziell für die kleineren Staaten ohne großen Binnenmarkt. Die mitteleuropäischen Wirtschaften mit ihrem starken Exportsektor sind hier besser aufgestellt als jene in Südosteuropa.

Zur Präsentation

Forschungsstelle Osteuropa (Universität Bremen) und DGO (Februar 2010): Die GUS verliert im Transformationsindex gegenüber anderen Weltregionen

Seit 2003 misst der Transformations Index (BTI) alle zwei Jahre die Fortschritte von 128 Transformations- und Entwicklungsländern auf ihrem Weg zu rechtsstaatlicher Demokratie und sozial verantwortlicher Marktwirtschaft. Was die "Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten" betrifft zeigt sich im BTI 2010 ein Ende der positiven Dynamik im Zuge der farbigen Revolutionen, zum Teil sogar eine Konsolidierung der autokratischen Regime. Im Durchschnitt wird die Region GUS im Vergleich zu den anderen Weltregionen zum Verlierer im BTI.

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Thomson Reuters & OeKB Geschäftsklima-Index Mittelosteuropa (Februar 2010): Das Geschäftsklima in Mittelosteuropa hellt sich weiter auf.

Direktinvestoren melden einen besseren Geschäftserfolg und sehen die Zukunftsperspektiven für Mittelosteuropa zuversichtlicher. Das Geschäftsklima wird in der Region am besten in Polen, Tschechien, der Slowakei und Slowenien eingeschätzt, sehr optimistisch sind die Erwartungen für Russland. Bei den Branchen sind die Aussichten für die Finanzdienstleister – speziell die Versicherungen – gut, die Situation in der Bau- und Immobilienwirtschaft bleibt weiter angespannt.

Mehr dazu: http://www.oekb.at/de/osn/DownloadCenter/information-services/OeKB-Presseinfo-zwoelfte-Erhebung-Thomson-Reuters-OeKB-GKI-Mittelosteuropa.pdf

Forschungsstelle Osteuropa an der Universität Bremen (Dezember 2009): Ausblick: Herausforderungen für die Ukraine im kommenden Jahr

ExpertInnen nehmen in Kurzbeiträgen Stellung  aus innenpolitischer, außenpolitischer und wirtschaftlicher Sicht

Mehr dazu unter http://www.laender-analysen.de/ukraine/pdf/UkraineAnalysen66.pdf

EBRD Study (November 2009): Understanding the crisis in emerging Europe

Emerging Europe suffered larger output declines during 2008-09 than any other region in the world, although, the negative impact varied widely across the economies of the region. However, major balance-of-payments crises and collapses of the banking systems were avoided. The authors attribute this outcome to European economic and political integration.
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„Emerging Market Global Player Project“ of the Vale Columbia Center (December 2009):  New rankings of the largest outward investors from Russia, Slovenia, China, Turkey and other emerging economies are available.
Link

wiiw Presentation (November 2009): Response to the economic crisis in Ukraine and the medium-term outlook.

Ruslan Piontkivsky, senior economist at the World Bank, discusses the impact of the economic crisis on Ukraine, the response by the authorities and the role of the international financial institutions and gives a medium-term outlook for the economy.

Link

BBC World Service: 1989 – Europe’s Revolution: A collection of special reports (radio programmes) on the events that changed societies and economies in CEE

Please click here

Oesterreichische Nationalbank – Special Issue: 1989 – 2009, Twenty Years of East-West Integration: Hopes and Achievements.

This Special Issue 2009 comprises contributions by OeNB experts for the region and by renowned national and international authors who have monitored, analyzed and very often also shaped this process of transition in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe over the past two decades.

Download special issue

Vortrag von Prof. Sergey Kadochnikov (Ural State University, Ekaterinburg) zu „Die Wirtschaftskrise in Russland – Wie geht es (weiter)?“

In seinem Vortrag im Rahmen des GROW EAST QUARTERLY am 24.11.2009 geht Prof. Kadochnikov auf die Ursachen der Krise, aktuelle Entwicklungen und die Antikrisenprogramme der russischen Regierung ein. Die Krise bietet die (kleine) Chance,  die Modernisierung der russischen Wirtschaft endlich in Angriff zu nehmen.

Zum Vortrag klicken Sie hier

Horváth & Partners Präsentation (Oktober 2009): Neues aus CEE: Wie geht es mit den angeschlagenen CEE-/SEE-Standorten weiter?
Bitte klicken Sie hier

Financial Times Videos: George Soros „Lecture on the Way Forward“ at the Central European University in Budapest.

Please click here

wiiw Präsentation (November 2009): Die globale Krise und die Länder Zentral-, Ost- und
Südosteuropas: Aktuelle Diskussion der
wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen sowie Aussichten für
die Region
Bitte klicken Sie hier

Roland Berger CEE Manager Survey (October 2009): Unclear and pessimistic outlook still dominates but group of optimists grows. Two thirds of managers reckon that crisis will last for at least 12 months more. Real recovery expected not earlier than in 2011.

Restructuring will be top of the agenda in 2010.
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UNCTAD World Investment Report 2009: New record high for inward FDI in SEE and the CIS in 2008.
In 2008, inward FDI flows in South-East Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States reached a new record high. Privatization of state-owned enterprises drove FDI inflows in South-East Europe (pp.72-77).
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Russia lost in Competitiveness

The Global Competitiveness Report 2009-10 reveals a mixed picture for the CEE-region: 8 countries managed to move up in the ranking, 9 dropped in their positions, while one country remained unchanged. The Czech Republic emerged as leader among all CEE-countries, moving its rank up to 31st. Bosnia and Herzegovina lagged behind all CEE-participants and made it only to 109th place. Russia lost 12 positions, now occupying 63rd place and is herewith the only BRIC economy to experience a decline in performance.
Link: World Economic Forum - The Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010
Link: Country Highlights
Link: Download the Full Report

World Bank: Global crisis is pushing almost 35 million people back into poverty in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Bitte klicken Sie hier.

UniCredit Group - CEE Quarterly Q2/2009: Emerging Europe: Glimmers of hope, but some tough times still ahead.
Bitte klicken Sie hier.

Roland Berger CEE-Manager Survey (March 2009): Ensuring short-term liquidity and restructuring operations are top priorities
Bitte klicken Sie hier.

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants: The financial crisis - Consequences for Austria and CEE (November 2008)
Bitte klicken Sie hier.

Geteilt - Geeint. 1989-2009. Aufbruch in ein neues Europa. Veranstaltungsserie des Außenministeriums zum Thema "20 Jahre Fall des Eisernen Vorhangs"
bitte klicken Sie hier.

Das Geschäftsklima in CEE verdüstert sich - Thomson Reuters & OeKB Geschäftsklimaindex CEE
Bitte klicken Sie hier.

CEE-Studie des Kreditversicherers Atradius und der Economist Intelligence Unit: Langfristig aussichtsreiche Perspektive für CEE-Märkte
Bitte klicken Sie hier.

UNCTAD report February 2009: Assessing the impact of the current financial and economic crisis on global FDI flows:
Summary: hier

Full report: hier

Related press release: hier

EBRD Conference (December 2008): Transition economies and the impact of the financial crisis on the banking sector (presentations)
Bitte klicken Sie hier.

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants: Restructuring in CEE (November
2008) - Lack of restructuring experience in most countries studied
Bitte klicken Sie hier.

FIW-WIIW Studie zu Österreichischen
Direktinvestitione: Österreichs Investoren gehen weiter nach Osten und Südosten. Marktorientierung ist wichtiger als Kostenvorteil.
Bitte klicken Sie hier.

Moscow School of Management Skolkovo: The Top 25 Russian MNCs: bitte klicken Sie hier.

OeNB/Austrian Central Bank: Recent economic developments in selected CEE and SEE countries: bitte klicken Sie hier.

World Investment Report 2008: Foreign direct investment to and from South-East Europe and CIS reached unprecendentedly levels in 2007 (Downloads > Full Report > p.66-71): bitte klicken Sie hier.

FIW-WIFO Studie zum Wirtschaftsstandort Österreich:
Österreich ist als Standort für Headquarters weiterhin attracktiv, bitte klicken Sie hier.

Doing Business 2009: Eastern Europe and Central Asia lead the world in reforms of business regulations, bitte klicken Sie hier.

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants: SEE TOP 100 - The Top 100 Non-Financial Companies in South Eastern Europe
Bitte klicken Sie hier.

Deutsche Bank Research: Russland ist größter Auslandsinvestor unter den BRIC-Staaten.
Bitte klicken Sie hier.

Bank Austria presents the first CEE Sentiment
Indicator: CEE youth is internationally oriented, optimistic and flexible
Bitte klicken Sie hier.

Ranking of the Top-25 Slovenian Multinational Enterprises

developed by the Columbia Program on International Investment in cooperation with the Center of International Relations, Ljubljana. Zur Presseaussendung  klicken Sie bitte hier.

Ranking of the Top-25 Russian Multinational Enterprises

developed by the Columbia Program on International Investment in cooperation with Skolkovo Moscow School of Management. Zur Presseaussendung klicken Sie bitte hier.

World Bank's Russian Economic Report, June 2008:
Overheating economy and further need for structural reforms
zum Download der Studie, klicken Sie bitte hier.

The futures of the EBRD region to 2025 - A Scenario analysis commissioned by the EBRD and conducted by the consultancy Outsights in 2006-2007

Um diese Publikation zu lesen, klicken Sie bitte hier.